长文:俄罗斯总统普京经济顾问--谢尔盖-格拉济耶夫,介绍了新的全球金融体系!

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卡卡西里 2024-2-22 09:44:54 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
以数字货币为基础的世界新货币体系,将由一篮子新的外国货币和自然资源来支持。它将把全球南方从西方债务和国际货币基金组织引发的紧缩中解放出来。

俄罗斯总统普京经济顾问--谢尔盖-格拉济耶夫

俄罗斯总统普京经济顾问--谢尔盖-格拉济耶夫

Sergey Glazyev is a man living right in the eye of our current geopolitical and geo-economic hurricane. One of the most influential economists in the world, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and a former adviser to the Kremlin from 2012 to 2019, for the past three years he has helmed Moscow’s uber strategic portfolio as Minister in Charge of Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).

谢尔盖-格拉济耶夫是一个生活在我们当前地缘政治和地缘经济飓风眼中的人。他是世界上最有影响力的经济学家之一,是俄罗斯科学院院士,曾在2012年至2019年担任克里姆林宫顾问,在过去的三年里,他作为欧亚经济联盟(EAEU)负责一体化和宏观经济的部长,掌管着莫斯科的超级战略组合。


Glazyev’s recent intellectual production has been nothing short of transformative, epitomized by his essay Sanctions and Sovereignty and an extensive discussion of the new, emerging geo-economic paradigm in an interview to a Russian business magazine.

格拉济耶夫最近的智力成果不乏变革性,他的文章《制裁与主权》以及在接受一家俄罗斯商业杂志采访时对新的、正在出现的地缘经济范式的广泛讨论就是一个缩影。


In another of his recent essays, Glazyev comments on how “I grew up in Zaporozhye, near which heavy fighting is now taking place in order to destroy the Ukrainian Nazis, who never existed in my small Motherland. I studied at a Ukrainian school and I know Ukrainian literature and language well, which from a scientific point of view is a dialect of Russian. I did not notice anything Russophobic in Ukrainian culture. In the 17 years of my life in Zaporozhye, I have never met a single Banderist.”

在他最近的另一篇文章中,格拉济耶夫评论说:"我在扎波罗热长大,现在附近正在发生激烈的战斗,以消灭乌克兰的纳粹分子,他们在我的小祖国从未存在过。我在乌克兰学校学习,我很了解乌克兰文学和语言,从科学的角度来看,它是俄罗斯的一种方言。我没有注意到乌克兰文化中有任何仇视俄罗斯的东西。在我在扎波罗热生活的17年中,我从来没有见过一个班德尔人"。


The Cradle: You are at the forefront of a game-changing geo-economic development: the design of a new monetary/financial system via an association between the EAEU and China, bypassing the US dollar, with a draft soon to be concluded. Could you possibly advance some of the features of this system – which is certainly not a Bretton Woods III – but seems to be a clear alternative to the Washington consensus and very close to the necessities of the Global South?

The Cradle(媒体):您处于改变游戏规则的地缘经济发展的前沿:通过欧亚经济联盟和中国之间的联系设计一个新的货币/金融体系,绕过美元,草案即将完成。您能否介绍一下这个体系的一些特点--它当然不是布雷顿森林体系III,但似乎是华盛顿共识的明显替代方案,而且非常接近全球南方的需要?


Glazyev: In a bout of Russophobic hysteria, the ruling elite of the United States played its last “trump ace” in the hybrid war against Russia. Having “frozen” Russian foreign exchange reserves in custody accounts of western central banks, financial regulators of the US, EU, and the UK undermined the status of the dollar, euro, and pound as global reserve currencies. This step sharply accelerated the ongoing dismantling of the dollar-based economic world order.

格拉济耶夫:在一阵恐俄症中,美国的统治精英们在针对俄罗斯的混合战争中打出了最后一张 "王牌"。在 "冻结 "西方中央银行托管账户中的俄罗斯外汇储备后,美国、欧盟和英国的金融监管机构破坏了美元、欧元和英镑作为全球储备货币的地位。这一步骤急剧加速了以美元为基础的世界经济秩序的不断瓦解。


Over a decade ago, my colleagues at the Astana Economic Forum and I proposed to transition to a new global economic system based on a new synthetic trading currency based on an index of currencies of participating countries. Later, we proposed to expand the underlying currency basket by adding around twenty exchange-traded commodities. A monetary unit based on such an expanded basket was mathematically modeled and demonstrated a high degree of resilience and stability.

十多年前,我和阿斯塔纳经济论坛的同事们提议过渡到一个新的全球经济体系,其基础是基于参与国货币指数的新合成交易货币。后来,我们建议扩大基础货币篮子,增加大约20种交易所交易的商品。基于这样一个扩大的货币篮子的货币单位在数学上进行了建模,并显示出高度的弹性和稳定性。


At around the same time, we proposed to create a wide international coalition of resistance in the hybrid war for global dominance that the financial and power elite of the US unleashed on the countries that remained outside of its control. My book The Last World War: the USA to Move and Lose, published in 2016, scientifically explained the nature of this coming war and argued for its inevitability – a conclusion based on objective laws of long-term economic development. Based on the same objective laws, the book argued the inevitability of the defeat of the old dominant power.

大约在同一时间,我们建议在美国的金融和权力精英对其控制之外的国家发动的争夺全球主导地位的混合战争中,建立一个广泛的国际抵抗联盟。我在2016年出版的《最后一场世界大战:美国挑起与输掉的战争》一书,科学地解释了这场即将到来的战争的性质,并论证了它的不可避免性--这是基于长期经济发展的客观规律的结论。基于同样的客观规律,该书论证了老牌主导力量失败的必然性。


Currently, the US is fighting to maintain its dominance, but just as Britain previously, which provoked two world wars but was unable to keep its empire and its central position in the world due to the obsolescence of its colonial economic system, it is destined to fail. The British colonial economic system based on slave labor was overtaken by structurally more efficient economic systems of the US and the USSR. Both the US and the USSR were more efficient at managing human capital in vertically integrated systems, which split the world into their zones of influence. A transition to a new world economic order started after the disintegration of the USSR. This transition is now reaching its conclusion with the imminent disintegration of the dollar-based global economic system, which provided the foundation of the United States global dominance.

目前,美国正在为维持其统治地位而战,但就像之前的英国一样,虽然挑起了两次世界大战,但由于其殖民经济体系的过时,无法保持其帝国和在世界的中心地位,它注定要失败。英国基于奴隶劳动的殖民经济体系被美国和苏联结构上更有效率的经济体系所超越。美国和苏联在垂直整合系统中管理人力资本的效率更高,这使得世界被分割成他们的影响区。苏联解体后,开始向新的世界经济秩序过渡。随着以美元为基础的全球经济体系的即将解体,这一过渡正在达到其终点,该体系为美国的全球主导地位提供了基础。


The new convergent economic system that emerged in the PRC (People’s Republic of China) and India is the next inevitable stage of development, combining the benefits of both centralized strategic planning and market economy, and of both state control of the monetary and physical infrastructure and entrepreneurship. The new economic system united various strata of their societies around the goal of increasing common wellbeing in a way that is substantially stronger than the Anglo-Saxon and European alternatives. This is the main reason why Washington will not be able to win the global hybrid war that it started. This is also the main reason why the current dollar-centric global financial system will be superseded by a new one, based on a consensus of the countries who join the new world economic order.

在中华人民共和国(People's Republic of China)和印度出现的新的融合性经济体系是下一个不可避免的发展阶段,它结合了中央战略规划和市场经济的好处,以及国家对货币和物质基础设施的控制和企业家精神的好处。新的经济体系将他们社会的各个阶层团结在增加共同福祉的目标周围,其方式大大强于盎格鲁-撒克逊和欧洲的替代方案。这就是华盛顿无法赢得它所发动的全球混合战争的主要原因。这也是目前以美元为中心的全球金融体系将被一个新的体系所取代的主要原因,这个体系建立在加入新的世界经济秩序的国家的共识之上。


In the first phase of the transition, these countries fall back on using their national currencies and clearing mechanisms, backed by bilateral currency swaps. At this point, price formation is still mostly driven by prices at various exchanges, denominated in dollars. This phase is almost over: after Russia’s reserves in dollars, euro, pound, and yen were “frozen,” it is unlikely that any sovereign country will continue accumulating reserves in these currencies. Their immediate replacement is national currencies and gold.

在转型的第一阶段,这些国家会重新使用他们的国家货币和清算机制,并以双边货币互换为支撑。在这一点上,价格的形成仍然主要由各种交易所的价格驱动,以美元计价。这个阶段几乎结束了:在俄罗斯的美元、欧元、英镑和日元储备被 "冻结"后,任何主权国家都不太可能继续积累这些货币的储备。它们的直接替代物是国家货币和黄金。


The second stage of the transition will involve new pricing mechanisms that do not reference the dollar. Price formation in national currencies involves substantial overheads, however, it will still be more attractive than pricing in ‘un-anchored’ and treacherous currencies like dollars, pounds, euro, and yen. The only remaining global currency candidate – the yuan – won’t be taking their place due to its inconvertibility and the restricted external access to the Chinese capital markets. The use of gold as the price reference is constrained by the inconvenience of its use for payments.

转型的第二阶段将涉及不参考美元的新定价机制。国家货币的价格形成涉及大量的管理费用,然而,它仍将比以 "非锚定"和奸诈的货币如美元、英镑、欧元和日元定价更具吸引力。唯一剩下的全球货币候选者--人民币--不会取代它们的位置,因为它的不可兑换性和进入中国资本市场的外部限制。使用黄金作为价格参考受到限制,因为它在支付方面的使用不方便。


The third and the final stage on the new economic order transition will involve a creation of a new digital payment currency founded through an international agreement based on principles of transparency, fairness, goodwill, and efficiency. I expect that the model of such a monetary unit that we developed will play its role at this stage. A currency like this can be issued by a pool of currency reserves of BRICS countries, which all interested countries will be able to join. The weight of each currency in the basket could be proportional to the GDP of each country (based on purchasing power parity, for example), its share in international trade, as well as the population and territory size of participating countries.

新经济秩序转型的第三个阶段,也是最后一个阶段,将涉及到通过一项基于透明、公平、善意和效率原则的国际协议,创建一种新的数字支付货币。我希望我们开发的这种货币单位的模型将在这个阶段发挥其作用。这样的货币可以由金砖国家的货币储备库来发行,所有感兴趣的国家都可以加入。每种货币在篮子中的权重可以与每个国家的国内生产总值(例如,基于购买力平价)、其在国际贸易中的份额,以及参与国的人口和领土面积成比例。


In addition, the basket could contain an index of prices of main exchange-traded commodities: gold and other precious metals, key industrial metals, hydrocarbons, grains, sugar, as well as water and other natural resources. To provide backing and to make the currency more resilient, relevant international resource reserves can be created in due course. This new currency would be used exclusively for cross-border payments and issued to the participating countries based on a pre-defined formula. Participating countries would instead use their national currencies for credit creation, in order to finance national investments and industry, as well as for sovereign wealth reserves. Capital account cross-border flows would remain governed by national currency regulations.

此外,篮子可以包含主要交易所交易商品的价格指数:黄金和其他贵金属、主要工业金属、碳氢化合物、谷物、糖,以及水和其他自然资源。为了提供支持并使货币更有弹性,可以在适当的时候建立相关的国际资源储备。这种新货币将专门用于跨境支付,并根据预先确定的公式向参与国发行。参与国将使用他们的国家货币来创造信贷,以资助国家投资和工业,并用于主权财富储备。资本账户的跨境流动仍将受到国家货币法规的制约。


The Cradle: Michael Hudson specifically asks that if this new system enables nations in the Global South to suspend dollarized debt and is based on the ability to pay (in foreign exchange), can these loans be tied to either raw materials or, for China, tangible equity ownership in the capital infrastructure financed by foreign non-dollar credit?

摇篮"。迈克尔-哈德森特别问道,如果这个新系统使全球南方国家能够暂停美元化债务,并以支付能力(外汇)为基础,那么这些贷款能否与原材料挂钩,或者对中国来说,与外国非美元信贷资助的资本基础设施的有形股权挂钩?


Glazyev: Transition to the new world economic order will likely be accompanied by systematic refusal to honor obligations in dollars, euro, pound, and yen. In this respect, it will be no different from the example set by the countries issuing these currencies who thought it appropriate to steal foreign exchange reserves of Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Afghanistan, and Russia to the tune of trillions of dollars. Since the US, Britain, EU, and Japan refused to honor their obligations and confiscated the wealth of other nations which was held in their currencies, why should other countries be obliged to pay them back and to service their loans?

格拉济耶夫:在向新的世界经济秩序过渡的同时,可能会有系统地拒绝履行美元、欧元、英镑和日元的义务。在这方面,它将与发行这些货币的国家所树立的榜样没有区别,这些国家认为窃取伊拉克、伊朗、委内瑞拉、阿富汗和俄罗斯的外汇储备达数万亿美元是合适的。既然美国、英国、欧盟和日本拒绝履行其义务,并没收了其他国家以其货币持有的财富,为什么其他国家应该有义务偿还他们,并为他们的贷款提供服务?


In any case, participation in the new economic system will not be constrained by the obligations in the old one. Countries of the Global South can be full participants of the new system regardless of their accumulated debts in dollars, euro, pound, and yen. Even if they were to default on their obligations in those currencies, this would have no bearing on their credit rating in the new financial system. Nationalization of extraction industry, likewise, would not cause a disruption. Further, should these countries reserve a portion of their natural resources for the backing of the new economic system, their respective weight in the currency basket of the new monetary unit would increase accordingly, providing that nation with larger currency reserves and credit capacity. In addition, bilateral swap lines with trading partner countries would provide them with adequate financing for co-investments and trade financing.

在任何情况下,参与新的经济体系都不会受到旧体系中的义务的限制。全球南方国家可以成为新体系的完全参与者,而不管它们在美元、欧元、英镑和日元方面的累积债务。即使他们拖欠这些货币的债务,也不会影响他们在新金融体系中的信用评级。同样,开采业的国有化也不会造成混乱。此外,如果这些国家保留一部分自然资源作为新经济体系的支撑,它们各自在新货币单位的货币篮子中的权重将相应增加,为该国提供更大的货币储备和信贷能力。此外,与贸易伙伴国的双边互换线将为它们提供足够的资金,用于共同投资和贸易融资。


The Cradle: In one of your latest essays, The Economics of the Russian Victory, you call for “an accelerated formation of a new technological paradigm and the formation of institutions of a new world economic order.” Among the recommendations, you specifically propose the creation of “a payment and settlement system in the national currencies of the EAEU member states” and the development and implementation of “an independent system of international settlements in the EAEU, SCO and BRICS, which could eliminate critical dependence of the US-controlled SWIFT system.” Is it possible to foresee a concerted joint drive by the EAEU and China to “sell” the new system to SCO members, other BRICS members, ASEAN members and nations in West Asia, Africa and Latin America? And will that result in a bipolar geo-economy – the West versus The Rest?

摇篮》:在您最新的一篇文章《俄罗斯胜利的经济学》中,您呼吁 "加速形成新的技术范式和形成新的世界经济秩序的机构"。在这些建议中,您特别提出建立"以欧亚经济联盟成员国的国家货币进行支付和结算的系统",以及发展和实施 "欧亚经济联盟、上海合作组织和金砖国家的独立国际结算系统,这可以消除对美国控制的SWIFT系统的严重依赖。" 是否有可能预见到欧亚经济联盟和中国联合起来,向上海合作组织成员、其他金砖国家成员、东盟成员以及西亚、非洲和拉丁美洲国家 "推销"这个新系统?这是否会导致两极的地缘经济--西方对其他国家?


Glazyev: Indeed, this is the direction where we are headed. Disappointingly, monetary authorities of Russia are still a part of the Washington paradigm and play by the rules of the dollar-based system, even after Russian foreign exchange reserves were captured by the west. On the other hand, the recent sanctions prompted extensive soul searching among the rest of the non-dollar-block countries. western ‘agents of influence’ still control central banks of most countries, forcing them to apply suicidal policies prescribed by the IMF. However, such policies at this point are so obviously contrary to the national interests of these non-western countries that their authorities are growing justifiably concerned about financial security.

格拉济耶夫:的确,这就是我们的发展方向。令人失望的是,俄罗斯的货币当局仍然是华盛顿范式的一部分,并按照以美元为基础的系统的规则行事,即使在俄罗斯的外汇储备被西方夺走之后。另一方面,最近的制裁促使其他非美元区块国家进行广泛的反思。西方的 "势力代理人"仍然控制着大多数国家的中央银行,迫使它们实施国际货币基金组织规定的自杀性政策。然而,在这一点上,这种政策明显违背了这些非西方国家的国家利益,以至于它们的当局越来越有理由担心金融安全问题。


You correctly highlight potentially central roles of China and Russia in the genesis of the new world economic order. Unfortunately, current leadership of the CBR (Central Bank of Russia) remains trapped inside the intellectual cul-de-sac of the Washington paradigm and is unable to become a founding partner in the creation of a new global economic and financial framework. At the same time, the CBR already had to face the reality and create a national system for interbank messaging which is not dependent on SWIFT, and opened it up for foreign banks as well. Cross-currency swap lines have been already set up with key participating nations. Most transactions between member states of the EAEU are already denominated in national currencies and the share of their currencies in internal trade is growing at a rapid pace.

你正确地强调了中国和俄罗斯在新的世界经济秩序的形成过程中的潜在核心作用。不幸的是,俄罗斯中央银行(CBR)目前的领导层仍然被困在华盛顿范式的智力死胡同里,无法成为建立新的全球经济和金融框架的创始伙伴。同时,CBR已经不得不面对现实,创建了一个不依赖SWIFT的国家银行间信息传递系统,并向外国银行开放。已经与主要参与国建立了跨货币互换线。欧洲经济联盟成员国之间的大多数交易已经以本国货币计价,其货币在内部贸易中的份额正在快速增长。


A similar transition is taking place in trade with China, Iran, and Turkey. India indicated that it is ready to switch to payments in national currencies as well. A lot of effort is put in developing clearing mechanisms for national currency payments. In parallel, there is an ongoing effort to develop a digital non-banking payment system, which would be linked to gold and other exchange-traded commodities – the ‘stablecoins.’

与中国、伊朗和土耳其的贸易也在发生类似的转变。印度表示,它也准备转向以本国货币支付。在发展国家货币支付的清算机制方面投入了大量的精力。同时,正在努力开发一个数字非银行支付系统,该系统将与黄金和其他交易所交易的商品--"稳定币"挂钩。


Recent US and European sanctions imposed on the banking channels have caused a rapid increase in these efforts. The group of countries working on the new financial system only needs to announce the completion of the framework and readiness of the new trade currency and the process of formation of the new world financial order will accelerate further from there. The best way to bring it about would be to announce it at the SCO or BRICS regular meetings. We are working on that. 

最近美国和欧洲对银行渠道实施的制裁,导致这些努力迅速增加。致力于新金融体系的国家集团只需要宣布完成新贸易货币的框架和准备工作,世界金融新秩序的形成过程将从此进一步加速。实现这一目标的最佳方式是在上海合作组织或金砖国家的定期会议上宣布。我们正在为此而努力。


The Cradle: This has been an absolutely key issue in discussions by independent analysts across the west. Was the Russian Central Bank advising Russian gold producers to sell their gold in the London market to get a higher price than the Russian government or Central Bank would pay? Was there no anticipation whatsoever that the coming alternative to the US dollar will have to be based largely on gold? How would you characterize what happened? How much practical damage has this inflicted on the Russian economy short-term and mid-term?

The Cradle:在整个西方国家的独立分析师的讨论中,这一直是一个绝对的关键问题。俄罗斯中央银行是否建议俄罗斯黄金生产商在伦敦市场出售黄金,以获得比俄罗斯政府或中央银行更高的价格?是否完全没有预料到即将到来的美元替代品将必须主要基于黄金?你会如何描述所发生的事情?这对俄罗斯经济的短期和中期造成了多大的实际损害?


Glazyev: The monetary policy of the CBR, implemented in line with the IMF recommendations, has been devastating for the Russian economy. Combined disasters of the “freezing” of circa $400 billion of foreign exchange reserves and over a trillion dollars siphoned from the economy by oligarchs into western offshore destinations, came with the backdrop of equally disastrous policies of the CBR, which included excessively high real rates combined with a managed float of the exchange rate. We estimate this caused under-investment of circa 20 trillion rubles and under-production of circa 50 trillion rubles in goods.

格拉济耶夫:按照国际货币基金组织的建议实施的中央银行的货币政策,对俄罗斯经济是毁灭性的。约4000亿美元的外汇储备被 "冻结",寡头们从经济中抽走了超过一万亿美元的资金,这些灾难都是在中央银行同样灾难性的政策背景下发生的,其中包括过高的实际利率和有管理的汇率浮动。我们估计这造成了约20万亿卢布的投资不足和约50万亿卢布的商品生产不足。


Following Washington’s recommendations, the CBR stopped buying gold over the last two years, effectively forcing domestic gold miners to export full volumes of production, which added up to 500 tons of gold. These days the mistake and the harm it caused are very much obvious. Presently, the CBR resumed gold purchases, and, hopefully, will continue with sound policies in the interest of the national economy instead of ‘targeting inflation’ for the benefit of international speculators, as had been the case during the last decade.

根据华盛顿的建议,中央银行在过去两年停止购买黄金,有效地迫使国内黄金矿工出口全部产量,这增加了500吨黄金。这些天来,这个错误和它造成的伤害是非常明显的。目前,CBR恢复了黄金购买,并希望能继续执行符合国家经济利益的合理政策,而不是像过去十年那样,为了国际投机者的利益而 "瞄准通货膨胀"。


The Cradle: The Fed as well as the ECB were not consulted on the freeze of Russian foreign reserves. Word in New York and Frankfurt is that they would have opposed it were they to have been asked. Did you personally expect the freeze? And did the Russian leadership expect it?

The Cradle:美联储和欧洲央行在冻结俄罗斯外汇储备的问题上没有被征求意见。在纽约和法兰克福的消息是,如果被问到,他们会反对。你个人是否预料到了冻结的情况?俄罗斯领导层是否预料到这一点?


Glazyev: My book, The Last World War, that I already mentioned, which was published as far back as 2015, argued that the likelihood of this happening eventually is very high. In this hybrid war, economic warfare and informational/cognitive warfare are key theaters of conflict. On both of these fronts, the US and NATO countries have overwhelming superiority and I did not have any doubt that they would take full advantage of this in due course.

格拉济耶夫:我已经提到的《最后的世界大战》这本书,早在2015年就已经出版了,它认为最终发生这种情况的可能性非常大。在这场混合战争中,经济战和信息/认知战是冲突的关键战场。在这两条战线上,美国和北约国家拥有压倒性的优势,我毫不怀疑他们会在适当的时候充分利用这一优势。


I have been arguing for a long time for the replacement of dollars, euro, pounds, and yen in our foreign exchange reserves with gold, which is produced in abundance in Russia. Unfortunately, western agents of influence which occupy key roles at central banks of most countries, as well as rating agencies and key publications, were successful in silencing my ideas. To give you an example, I have no doubt that high-ranking officials at the Fed and the ECB were involved in developing anti-Russian financial sanctions. These sanctions have been consistently escalating and are being implemented almost instantly, despite the well-known difficulties with bureaucratic decision making in the EU. 

我长期以来一直主张用黄金取代我们外汇储备中的美元、欧元、英镑和日元,而黄金在俄罗斯有大量生产。不幸的是,在大多数国家的中央银行担任重要职务的西方势力代理人,以及评级机构和主要出版物,都成功地压制了我的想法。举个例子,我毫不怀疑美联储和欧洲央行的高级官员参与了制定反俄罗斯的金融制裁。这些制裁措施一直在不断升级,而且几乎是即时实施的,尽管欧盟的官僚决策有众所周知的困难。


The Cradle: Elvira Nabiullina has been reconfirmed as the head of the Russian Central Bank. What would you do differently, compared to her previous actions? What is the main guiding principle involved in your different approaches?

The Cradle:埃尔维拉-纳比乌林娜已被重新确认为俄罗斯中央银行的负责人。与她之前的行动相比,你会采取什么不同的做法?您的不同做法所涉及的主要指导原则是什么?


Glazyev: The difference between our approaches is very simple. Her policies are an orthodox implementation of IMF recommendations and dogmas of the Washington paradigm, while my recommendations are based on the scientific method and empirical evidence accumulated over the last hundred years in leading countries.

格拉济耶夫:我们的方法之间的区别非常简单。她的政策是对国际货币基金组织的建议和华盛顿范式的教条的正统执行,而我的建议是基于科学方法和过去一百年来在领先国家积累的经验证据。


The Cradle: The Russia-China strategic partnership seems to be increasingly ironclad – as Presidents Putin and Xi themselves constantly reaffirm. But there are rumbles against it not only in the west but also in some Russian policy circles. In this extremely delicate historical juncture, how reliable is China as an all-season ally to Russia?

The Cradle:俄中战略伙伴关系似乎越来越铁了--正如普京总统和习主席自己不断重申的那样。但是,不仅在西方,而且在一些俄罗斯的政策圈子里也有反对它的声音。在这个极其微妙的历史关头,中国作为俄罗斯的全天候盟友,其可靠性如何?


Glazyev: The foundation of Russian-Chinese strategic partnership is common sense, common interests, and the experience of cooperation over hundreds of years. The US ruling elite started a global hybrid war aimed at defending its hegemonic position in the world, targeting China as the key economic competitor and Russia as the key counter-balancing force. Initially, the US geopolitical efforts were aiming to create a conflict between Russia and China. Agents of western influence were amplifying xenophobic ideas in our media and blocking any attempts to transition to payments in national currencies. On the Chinese side, agents of western influence were pushing the government to fall in line with the demands of the US interests.

格拉济耶夫:俄中战略伙伴关系的基础是常识、共同利益,以及数百年来的合作经验。美国统治精英开始了一场旨在捍卫其世界霸权地位的全球混合战争,将中国作为关键的经济竞争者,将俄罗斯作为关键的制衡力量。最初,美国的地缘政治努力的目的是在俄罗斯和中国之间制造冲突。西方势力的代理人在我们的媒体上放大仇外思想,并阻止任何向国家货币支付过渡的尝试。在中国方面,西方势力的代理人正在推动政府与美国的利益要求保持一致。


However, sovereign interests of Russia and China logically led to their growing strategic partnership and cooperation, in order to address common threats emanating from Washington. The US tariff war with China and financial sanctions war with Russia validated these concerns and demonstrated the clear and present danger our two countries are facing. Common interests of survival and resistance are uniting China and Russia, and our two countries are largely symbiotic economically. They complement and increase competitive advantages of each other. These common interests will persist over the long run.

然而,俄罗斯和中国的主权利益顺理成章地导致了他们日益增长的战略伙伴关系和合作,以应对来自华盛顿的共同威胁。美国对中国的关税战和对俄罗斯的金融制裁战验证了这些担忧,并显示了我们两国所面临的明确和现实的危险。生存和抵抗的共同利益正在将中国和俄罗斯团结在一起,我们两国在经济上基本上是共生的。它们相互补充并增加彼此的竞争优势。这些共同利益将长期存在。
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